There is a common assumption that the future will be much like the past only bigger, that recent historical trends will simply continue, in particular that historical trends in health will continue to improve ...  .

Whilst it is notoriously difficult to make predictions, it is perplexing that we are so able to accept mere extrapolations of recent historical trends, including the unscientific projections of economists and demographers, but at the same time seem entirely unable to consider how our future will be affected by many known limitations and determinants of health.

The reason for changing the focus of this blog in largely in relation to attempts I have made to discuss this with media commentators, politicians and others who repeat these assertions that we will all live longer and health lives without question. The very notion that our future health may worsen is so foreign to most, that it is rejected out of hand. 

The flawed longevity assumption