There is a common assumption that the future will be much like the past only bigger, that recent historical trends will simply continue, in particular that historical trends in health will continue to improve ... .
Whilst it is notoriously difficult to make predictions, it
is perplexing that we are so able to accept mere extrapolations of
recent historical trends, including the unscientific projections of
economists and demographers, but at the same time seem entirely unable
to consider how our future will be affected by many known limitations
and determinants of health.
The reason for changing the focus of this blog in
largely in relation to attempts I have made to discuss this with media
commentators, politicians and others who repeat these assertions that we
will all live longer and health lives without question. The very notion
that our future health may worsen is so foreign to most, that it is
rejected out of hand.
The flawed longevity assumption